The Next Twenty Years
“There’s no innovation these days,” my colleague mentions in passing. Another echoes the sentiment. “Companies are doing whatever they can to squeeze customers now,” he continues.
I disagree. Two trends cause this misconception. People look to established players for innovation. And as the heuristics by which it works are unveiled, technology loses its magic; thus, working in the trenches of technology leaves us jaded to the broader innovations we create.
In reality, we are at the precipice of some amazing technological change. In this post, I suggest where innovation might take place in the coming two decades.
Development
The software ecosystem is great. Two generations of developers have streamlined the process of creating, collaborating on, testing, and deploying code. That paradigm is starting to spill beyond the world of bits and into the world of atoms. The process of open source, collaborative development, with minimal capital overhead is moving beyond software to things like manufacturing and healthcare.
Hand-in-hand with this trend is the start-up economy. The barrier to entry for raising capital and making a business has been rapidly falling, making it easier for developers to get their ideas into customers’ hands. The combination of shorter release cycles leads to increased competition means customers get better stuff.
What to expect: Factories-as-a-Service, a GitHub for {genomics, pharmaceuticals, material goods}, More Crowd Sourced and Personalized Products
Interfaces
As our devices become more and more connected, we have the opportunity for real innovation in the way we interface with not just gadgets but also our cars, homes, even public spaces. Companies like Wit.ai and Thalmic Labs spearhead this change by experimenting with new models; Wit is especially interesting as it brings development to natural language interfaces.
Natural language interfaces will become the standard, in everything from cars to homes. “Car, turn down the music.” “House, preheat the oven.” And, maybe one day, “house, make me a smoothie.” Amazon knows these will be important - they released the Amazon Echo this week.
As our technology requires less and less user input, especially from a keyboard, wearables will become the de facto handheld device. They will replace the mobile phone, allowing us to reclaim the time that apps have encroached on.
What to expect: Natural Language Interfaces, the push notification as the app of the future, Smart Personal Assistants
Resource Optimization
The internet is a magnificent tool for resource optimization because it facilitates efficient communication. As the friction caused by connecting buyers to sellers decreases, resource optimization improves. Uber, AirBNB, Homejoy, and others have demonstrated that there is a giant market for P2P services.
The fluid exchange of goods and services, per basic economics, reduces prices. Soon, many of these P2P companies will be able deliver their services with very little human intervention – effectively becoming P2R (Peer-to-Robot hah). Amazon’s Kiva already automates the organization of its huge warehouses and talk of virtually every industry using drones for everything from delivery to surveillance abounds.
Although some people are concerned about the service jobs that may be lost, the reality is that we will have the same economic output with less investment in human capital, meaning that everyone will be better off. Furthermore, the resulting system would be much more scalable: manufacturing more robots for specific jobs is easier than staffing and training employees. As a result of the reduction in labor at the lowest points in the supply chain, much of the economic benefit will move up, into the hands of designers and engineers.
What to expect: Shorter Work Weeks, Shift Toward Interpersonal Rather than Mechanical Jobs
Transporation
When it comes to resource optimization, self-driving cars are a category of their own. Arguably, the most significant feature of any American city is its road network. The average American spends over 100 minutes per day driving. That’s almost 10% of our waking hours.
Self-driving cars will allow people to can reclaim the lost time. Not only would self-driving cars be convenient, they would be cheap, too. At any given time, not more than 25% of all vehicles in the country are in use. That means we could have only a quarter of the cars that we do now for the same transportation benefit. Parking would become a non-issue, since many of the vehicles on the road would constantly be in use; and, when some vehicles are no longer needed, they can park themselves far from congested city centers.
This means big changes for infrastructure. Since these cars may eventually be electric, there would be no dangerous emissions and we could put much of the road networks underground. Parking fixtures and excess roads may be converted into parks; land now used for roads could also be reclaimed for constructing homes and offices.
Vehicles will be owned not by individuals, but managed, perhaps like a utility company.
What to expect: No More Traffic, End of Car Ownership, Reduced Cost of Transportation Overall
Sustainability
The changes of the 21st century must happen with sustainability in mind. Economics without a consideration for negative externalities drives many of the decisions humanity makes with regard to energy, water, and food production. An auspicious trend would be to consider and weigh those externalities as we evolve our infrastructure.
President Obama recently made a poignant statement that “we are the first generation to feel the effects of climate change, and the last who can do anything about it.” It is imperative that we make the move toward clean energy. Greenhouse gases are affecting the world’s climate and their consequences are unknown. Though, scientists say that an increase in mean global temperature (MGT) by five degrees Fahrenheit would leave NYC under 750 feet of ocean; for reference, MGT has increased ~0.7 degrees F since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
In addition to sustainable energy, creating sustainable the water and food supplies will be critical to sustain the long-term growth and sustenance of our civilization. Water problems might start being addressed by desalination plants in coastal areas, like California. As energy becomes a non-issue, desalination will become more viable. Eventually, populations from the driest regions will shift to places where water is more plentiful. Furthermore, data scientists can answer critical questions about where to produce different types of food. A string of startups have emerged in this sphere, doing things like monitoring which crops are doing best with drones and optimizing water distribution.
What to expect: Shift From Fossil Fuels, Everything Runs on Electricity, More Efficient Food Production Through ML + Data Science
Healthcare
We are just now scratching the surface of augmenting preventive healthcare through a rigorous, data-driven approach. With a deluge of data coming from sequencing human DNA, we can start learning how DNA sequences correlate to certain diseases. The cost of DNA-sequencing dropped dramatically in the past decade, and is now on track to cost under $1000 within the decade. Pundits joke that the analysis would still cost millions. One Bay Area company, Color Genomics, now makes a $250 take-home kit that analyzes DNA for certain mutations which increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancers. Although it is one of many metrics, the take home kit portends the power of such technology.
Eventually, we will ingest receptors that track everything from hormones, to blood sugar, to hemoglobin constantly, catching warning signs for cardiac diseases, diabetes, or even Alzheimer’s long before they have the chance to be devastating. The higher resolution data we have, the more we can learn. The more we know, the better we can predict.
What to expect: A Focus on Health Analytics, Better Preventive Care Through Data
Synposis
Certain areas of technology are getting saturated. Many companies are still trying to eek out whatever revenue they can, sometimes without any innovation to show for their increased prices – that’s how companies are wired to behave. But make no mistake, there is more innovation at the margins than probably at any point before. Pandora is way out of the box.
In the words my current employer(s), it’s Day One. This journey is 1% finished.
Afterword
At the time of writing, I had not considered Virtual Reality as a major area of interest in the next two decades. However, having experienced VR and listened to a number of thought leaders share their outlook on the technology, I believe that there is great potential for VR to become a mainstream content platform.